Curious Quote from the Author
“If you don’t get this elementary, but mildly unnatural, mathematics of elementary probability into your repertoire, then you go through a long life like a one-legged man in an ass-kicking contest.”
“For superforecasters, beliefs are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be guarded.”
“For scientists, not knowing is exciting. It’s an opportunity to discover; the more that is unknown, the greater the opportunity.”
Consensus is not always good; disagreement not always bad. If you do happen to agree, don’t take that agreement—in itself—as proof that you are right. Never stop doubting.”
“Churchill sent Keynes a cable reading, ‘Am coming around to your point of view.’ His Lordship replied, ‘Sorry to hear it. Have started to change my mind.’
The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function,” F. Scott Fitzgerald”
“It is wise to take admissions of uncertainty seriously,” Daniel Kahneman noted, “but declarations of high confidence mainly tell you that an individual has constructed a coherent story in his mind, not necessarily that the story is true.”
“If you have to plan for a future beyond the forecasting horizon, plan for surprise. That means, as Danzig advises, planning for adaptability and resilience.”
“It’s very hard to master and if you’re not learning all the time, you will fail. That being said, humility in the face of the game is extremely different than humility in the face of your opponents.”
“It was the absence of doubt—and scientific rigor—that made medicine unscientific and caused it to stagnate for so long.”
“It follows that the goal of forecasting is not to see what’s coming. It is to advance the interests of the forecaster and the forecaster’s tribe.”
📚 Cognition of the Book’s Big Idea:
It takes more than a genius-level IQ or natural aptitude to be a superforecaster. Rather, it is a methodical process that necessitates dissecting problems into smaller parts, aggressively seeking out different viewpoints, and updating predictions on a regular basis as new data becomes available.
Superforecasters are distinguished by their exacting prediction-making, active open-mindedness, and rigorous, evidence-based reasoning techniques. To get extraordinary precision, they use a methodical, evidence-based approach rather than depending only on intuition.
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